eMarketer has revised its projections for 2008’s and 2009’s online ad spending, from its relatively rosy estimates from August, to a more modest set of numbers that reflect the worsening outlook for the display ad market. US online ad spend should reach $23.6 billion this year (down from the $24.7 billion estimate in August) and $25.7 billion in 2009 (down from $28.5 billion). What’s most striking about this change is not that numbers are being revised downward significantly, but that growth rates are still positive.

While eMarketer’s sanguine predictions might paint it as a cheerleader for the online advertising industry, its own history shows its projections of being fairly accurate.

Significantly, search/contextual advertising is expected to grow from about 44% of the online ad market to almost 50% by the end of 2010. This is due to the fact that, even as times are rough, search/contextual continues to grow by double-digits: 21.4% in 2008 and 14.7% in 2009. Contrast this with a now 3.9% anticipated growth rate for the year for display.

This entry was posted on Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 at 3:36 pm and is filed under Online Advertising. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.