When it comes to predicting when the macroeconomic recovery is supposed to come, it’s anyone’s guess. Online advertising, though, is widely understood to be weathering but a small setback in its naturally high growth rate, and recent statistics suggest that the first-time drop in online ad growth is fairly modest, all things considered.

None other than the Beast from Redmond (or rather, a representative from one of its European operations) expects that a recovery won’t happen for another 3 years. In the meantime, John Mangelaars, Microsoft VP Consumer and Online for Europe, Middle East and Africa, suggests an industry shakeup is likely with even established players being winnowed away by an increasingly competitive market.

Why? Part of the reason is efficiency: technology has enabled marketers to better understand and target their spend. Implicit in this is the opportunity to grow when spend can be scaled without compromising ROI.

I’m current at OMMA Publish, the association’s annual conference dedicated to the issues confronting publishers, and this morning’s “great debate” was whether publishers should work with ad networks to monetize their remnant inventory, or if they should sell all of their inventory themselves. Panelists Walker Jacobs (Turner Sports) and David Koretz (Adventive) repeated that allowing advertisers a low-cost channel to purchase advertising through an ad network leads you to a “race to the bottom.”

It’s possible then that advertisers are simply becoming more sophisticated, finding the lowest-cost pathway to buy media, often through ad networks. Networks are offering greater control over ad placement (to avoid problems surrounding sensitivity around context), audience targeting and performance analytics, and their ability to scale might be giving advertisers the right combination of features that they’re looking for. Ad networks have certainly grown their share of total ad spend over the last few years. Whether the drop in unsold inventory has come with a concomitant drop in spend is certainly up for debate.

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